Monday, September 17, 2007

Running out of options


Germany...notified its allies last week that the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel refuses to support the imposition of any further sanctions against Iran that could be imposed by the U.N. Security Council...[It] left most Bush administration principals concluding that sanctions are dead.


Kouchner said there was "no greater crisis today" than that over Teheran's developing nuclear programme.

"We will not accept that this (nuclear) bomb will be built," he declared, for this would represent "a real danger for the entire world."

Interviewed on French television about Iran late Sunday, Kouchner said, "We must prepare for the worst." Asked what the worst was, he replied, "It is war."


Ahmadinejad further promised to place Iran's nuclear technology "at the service of those who are determined to confront the bullying powers and aggressors [i.e., the Western countries, headed by the U.S.]..."
"[The] history of the West, he said, had reached its end, and the appearance of the Hidden Imam, heralding the era of Islamic Shi'ite rule, was nigh."

If sanctions cannot be imposed and enforced, and Iran is intent on going ahead, either France, Britain and the US back down and accept it, or ... they don't. It's looking more and more like somebody's going to have to ... call the Israelis.

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Hazar Nesimi said...

I should be tranquil, but I am not and you guess what I think... There is no love lost between me and theocratic Iran, but it is not what matters, Destruction of the only functioning society in the Middle East will be a disaster of apocalyptical proportions. Of course as seen from distant Israel or Europe, this is deal easily done until coffins start coming back home. I hope Azerbaijan does not allow US forces (vain hope though, with current regime in power) to be stationed on its soil to attack Iran. War is inevitable because bombing will not solve anything. (e.g Iraq)

NoolaBeulah said...

Do you really think war is inevitable? I honestly don't think anyone in the West is ready for it. Bombing, yes; but not invasion.

You say that bombing will not solve anything. Could it not go like this? - Strikes on enough of the nuclear program to put them back a few years - More economic pressure + maybe a helping hand to the Kurds and other disaffected groups.

Iran is a far more sophisticated place politically than Iraq, one where opposition can exist. So is there not a hope that a more reasonable governing group could take power and defuse this conflict? They wouldn't have to be friendly to the West - it would be enough if they were not expecting a visit from the 12th Imam.

Could it not go like that?

Hazar Nesimi said...

Iran had widthstood 8 years of most devastating warfare with F16 bombings and chemical weapons used against its population. I dont know how some sanctions and "targeted" bombings can lower their morale, and nuclear sites are well hidden (and to me the case of nuclear arming Iran is unproven), some of them close to population centres. Helping Kurds or Azeris (there are almost 10 million of my ethnic kin there)is going to backfire on the region. And yes there are many parties in Iran, but as to their anti-Israeli stance theere is a broad consensus. Best hope is that Ahmadinejad gets impeached (there was a move in the parliament recently) or defeated in polls with help of moderate Ayatollahs. But that is a long way from now. West wants the action now

NoolaBeulah said...

I don't doubt Iran's ability to withstand pressure; it's just keeping them within certain boundaries of behaviour that is desirable.

I can't think of any other explanation for Iran's actions and words except that they are after a bomb. When Ahmadinejad promises
"to place Iran's nuclear technology "at the service of those who are determined to confront the bullying powers and aggressors [i.e., the Western countries, headed by the U.S.]...", what is he talking about sharing?

Hazar Nesimi said...

Will see... I am coming back to Azerbaijan next month, (but I have UK settlement, so I can escape in case of war :-)). I am sceptical afer Iraq, i also did not believe that the will start given so much public opposition, and fabrication of evidence but...

NoolaBeulah said...

I hope you do a lot of posting from Azerbaijan when you go back. Are you going back for good or for a visit? I'm very glad to hear that you can enter the UK whenever you want. (If you ever get up near Manchester, get in touch.)

But I really don't think anyone is going to start a war with Iran. There's not enough money or soldiers to do it, not do I think it would do any good. A couple of attacks on nuclear facilities, yes. But nothing else.

There has to be a red line drawn somewhere, and in this case, the somewhere is Iran with a bomb. It might not be 'fair', but it's better for everybody that Iran be prevented from acquiring such power. Quite apart from what they might do with it, it would set off an arms race in the Middle East, the region in the world where it could cause most harm.

Hazar Nesimi said...

I hope so, since i have internet connection... Well I might be going for a couple of years, but will be a very frequent visitor to UK, after all i spent 6 years here in London. Its pleausure to have engaged in comm. with you - my real name is Nazim Abdullayev, btw. and i regret for not visiting Manchester, was put off by bad PR of the place.

NoolaBeulah said...

There are all sorts of bad things you can say about Manchester; I said a lot of them myself when I first got here. It's not a pretty place, but it has regained its dynamism since I arrived here in the early 80s (I'm not suggesting there's any connection between those two events).

I've enjoyed hearing what you have to say. I hope you continue blogging; I'll keep dropping in to your site. If you want to send me an email, send to noola.beulah@