Saturday, April 15, 2006

Iranians on top

Dinocrat on how the Iranians are playing it smart and how they are probably right.

Let's review the assumptions that Iran is making about the United States in its unapologetic quest for nuclear weapons, and its laughing at sanctions and possible military action:

(a) perhaps other countries would keep the US from doing anything whatsoever about Iran, through the UN or otherwise;

(b) the US would attack Iran with precision and restraint if at all;

(c) whatever tactics Iran would use in response to a US attack — terrorism, oil embargo, chaos in Iraq, use of the MSM — would create a “quagmire” beyond the “stamina” of the US to withstand;

(d) the lack of Iran’s actual warmaking power would be offset by a combination of military self-restraint by America, global and domestic protest at American action, dovish political opposition in the US, the MSM’s amplification of whatever Iran would do to put it on a superior footing to American military action, and perhaps factors unknown.
It's quite a long post, and he can't stop updating it, but it's worth reading.

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