Leaning slightly towards optimism but afraid of falling over

Robert Kagan says it's getting better and the figures bear him out. It's a good start, but I still say it's way too early, and Bill Roggio is cautious:

One item to note: the four year anniversary of the U.S. invasion is coming up next week, and it may be possible al Qaeda in Iraq is conserving its forces for a show of force and the resulting media attention.

I like the last phrase. That's what it's about. Get your narrative on the 6 o'clock news.