Sunday, August 19, 2007

Cut, run and hide

This is shameful. The Americans are going to end up in Basra as well to fix the mess that we leave.

In Britain, Gordon Brown's government has tried to depict a quiet process of handover to Iraqi troops in Basra, which will see the remaining forces in the city withdraw to the airport in November.

What US generals see, however, is a close ally preparing to "cut and run", leaving behind a city in the grip of a power struggle between Shia militias that could determine the fate of the Iraqi government and the country as a whole. With signs of the surge yielding tentative progress in Baghdad, but at the cost of many American lives, there could scarcely be a worse time for a parting of the ways. Yet the US military has no doubt, despite what Gordon Brown claims, that the pullout is being driven by "the political situation at home in the UK".

Update

For far too long senior commanders encouraged the view that the British Army, with its long experience of peace-keeping operations in Northern Ireland, had done a better job than the trigger-happy Americans in restoring law and order to the four Iraqi provinces they administered, following Saddam's overthrow.

By comparison [with the Surge operations], the British garrison in Basra, which for so long lorded it over its American coalition partners as Iraq's lone success story, finds itself at its most beleaguered, with an estimated 450 rockets being fired at the British airbase on the outskirts of Basra in the past three months alone.

While British commanders on the ground bitterly resent suggestions that their mission has failed - they point out that Basra, unlike the rest of the country, has adequate supplies of electricity and water - there is a growing belief among American commanders that the British have become casualty-averse and are only doing the bare minimum in terms of maintaining a military presence on the streets of Basra.

Power, Faith and Academe

An article about Middle Eastern Studies from an unusual viewpoint: The Philanthropy Roundtable. Its thrust is simply this: the academy cannot be trusted with the Middle East because, since Edward Said's Orientalism, it has been politicised and now attracts activists rather than scholars. Therefore philanthropy should step into the breach.

Examples from the Academy

Much has been made about how the CIA's failure to penetrate al Qaeda -- a shortcoming in "human intelligence" -- paved the path to 9/11. Yet one of the greatest human intelligence failures occurred among scholars associated with Middle Eastern studies. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, as Kramer documents, they downplayed the threat of terrorism. John Esposito of Georgetown University even suggested that Islamic radicalism would lead to democracy and reform: "The nineties will prove to be a decade of new alliances and alignments in which the Islamic movements will challenge rather than threaten their societies and the West."

Esposito's colleague John Voll defended the Islamic government of Sudan: "It is not possible, even using exclusively Western political experience as a basis for definition, to state that if a system does not have two parties, it is not democratic," he said in Congressional testimony. Today, Sudan is one of five countries on the Department of State's list of terrorism sponsors -- and Esposito and Voll are director and associate director, respectively, of Georgetown's HRH Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding.

[The Alwaleed Bin Talal Center was set up with a gift of $20 million by the eponymous Saudi prince, whose money set up a similar centre at Harvard, but whose gift of $10 million to New York in 2001 was refused by Giuliani because the prince accompanied it with requests that the US should adjust its foreign policy in response to the 9/11 attacks.]

Philanthropists are already doing this. One example is that of Michael Oren, whose Six Days of War: June 1967 I have just finished and recommend highly. Thanks to sponsorship to cover $5-600,000 in research costs, he has written Power, Faith, and Fantasy: America in the Middle East, 1776 to the Present.

One of the book's key lessons is that U.S. involvement in the Middle East stretches back much further than the current Bush administration or even the Truman and FDR administrations -- all the way back, in fact, to the founding of the country. "The United States is often portrayed as an imperialist power, but Americans have worked for the independence of Middle Easterners for nearly 200 years -- Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Libya owe their independence largely to American support," says Oren. The first U.S. soldiers to die in combat overseas were the victims of Arabic-speaking hijackers.

Then there was the little matter of the Barbary slave trade.

Why does it cost so much to research a book on Middle Eastern history?

Unlike the Western world, with its open archives and free access to documents, similar materials in the Arab world must be bought. "If you want the war archives of the Jordanian and Syrian armies, you need money," says Oren. "It's cloak-and-dagger stuff, involving envelopes of cash and so on."

It is puzzling that George Bush has chosen to put money into Middle East Studies departments (why is any faculty whose name includes the word 'Studies' inevitably a purveyor of rad-chic cobblers?), when they can be so little use to him? Can such departments be reformed? Or must they just be left to wither on the vine with their sour fruit? Is this another case of the private sector coming to the rescue of the public?

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Diversity and trust

A little while back, I posted Robert A. Heinlein's credo. As reported by John Derbyshire, it went like this:

Eschewing any religious or metaphysical affirmations, Heinlein laid out his social credo: “I believe in my neighbors... in my townspeople... in my fellow citizens.” He went on to write about his local priest, whose “goodness and charity and loving kindness shine in his daily actions. ... If I’m in trouble, I’ll go to him.” (Heinlein was an atheist, by the way.) Heinlein’s next-door neighbor, he tells us, was a veterinarian: “Doc will get out of bed after a hard day to help a stray cat — no fee, no prospect of a fee.”

Heinlein went on to praise the charity and conscientiousness of his fellow citizens: “For the one who says, ‘The heck with you, I've got mine,’ there are a hundred, a thousand, who will say, ‘Sure, pal, sit down.’ I know that despite all warnings against hitchhikers, I can step to the highway, thumb for a ride, and in a few minutes a car or a truck will stop and someone will say, ‘Climb in, Mack. How far you going?’ ... I believe in the honest craft of workmen. Take a look around you. There never were enough bosses to check up on all that work. From Independence Hall to the Grand Coulee Dam, these things were built level and square by craftsmen who were honest in their bones.”

Derbyshire went on to offer an explanation for the disappearance of this world. Firstly, the means by which we got rid of some unsatisfactory aspects of that world were such that, along with them, we lost "civilizational confidence". I had no trouble with that. His second reason struck me as both true and unpleasant. We had passed from social homogeneity to diversity. When I posted the Heinlein quote I said very little else, in part so as not to deal with that.

The other day, I came across a piece in the WSJ called "The Death of Diversity" by Daniel Henniger. In it, he reports the findings of Robert Putnam, a Harvard don, whose researchers did 30,000 interviews in 41 U.S. communities and whose conclusions were that "in areas of greater diversity, our respondents demonstrate:

Lower confidence in local government, local leaders and the local news media.
Lower political efficacy – that is, confidence in their own influence.
Lower frequency of registering to vote, but more interest and knowledge about politics and more participation in protest marches and social reform groups.
Less expectation that others will cooperate to solve dilemmas of collective action (e.g., voluntary conservation to ease a water or energy shortage).
Less likelihood of working on a community project.
Lower likelihood of giving to charity or volunteering.
Fewer close friends and confidants.
Less happiness and lower perceived quality of life.
More time spent watching television and more agreement that 'television is my most important form of entertainment."

[The above list is actually from this post, which Derbyshire had linked to, but which I didn't see originally.]

Putnam was not pleased by his results, and nor were his colleagues.

Prof. Putnam and his team re-ran the data every which way from Sunday and the result was always the same: Diverse communities may be yeasty and even creative, but trust, altruism and community cooperation fall. He calls it "hunkering down."

How does trust break down? Obviously, language difficulties would be play their part, but I suspect it's more to to do with less definable factors than the level of someone's English.

I saw one small example of this on a language teaching course in the 80s. Linguists had arranged that 2 people entered a post office, requested a form, then changed their minds and requested a different one. The first person was a native English speaker; the second a Pakistani whose English was structurally perfect. Both used the same words, both the same register: formal and polite. The reaction of the clerk serving them, however, was perceptibly different. He showed signs of impatience with the second speaker that were entirely absent before.

Many would jump to the conclusion that the clerk was racist. But there was another factor to consider: intonation. Its importance should not be underestimated.

Anyone who has learnt or taught another language will know that  intonation is even harder than pronunciation to get right. It may well be the first aspect of spoken language that we learn as babies, and it is incredibly difficult to acquire another language's pitch patterns. 

I discovered this in two ways. I taught English for a long time and can remember one or two adult learners out of thousands whose intonation was even close to a native speaker's. When I was learning Italian, it was the thing which gave me the most difficulty, and I would try to imitate Italians with a flatter, less expressive intonation just to get round that insuperable barrier.

Because it makes such a difference. Every teacher must have had students that made them feel violent just because of their tone of voice. Perfectly civil Germans would have me clenching my fists, and it was simply that they were speaking innocent English words with a German intonation, and sounded rude

In the case above, the Pakistani used an intonation that to a fellow Urdu speaker expressed politeness, but to English ears sounded very much like, "you idiot". He most definitely did not mean to 'say' that; he knew he was being filmed. But that is how he sounded.

A little thing, but one of many. Trust requires predictability in social relations, but that takes in whole worlds of behaviour, much of which is unconscious and all of which is very easily misinterpreted.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Make them secure

A review of Hitler’s Beneficiaries: Plunder, Racial War, and the Nazi Welfare State by Götz Aly. I linked to a July 24 post by Ilya Somin on this and another book last month.

Michael C. Moynihan points out that the point of view adopted in this book is a necessary addition to others in the effort to explain National Socialism, but it is not the golden bullet, which almost certainly does not exist.

“The Nazi leadership did not transform the majority of Germans into ideological fanatics who were convinced that they were the master race,” Aly concludes. “Instead it succeeded in making them well-fed parasites.”

This makes sense. The majority of people, for many reasons, are not ideological and will not become extremists. The most basic of those many reasons is that they have better things to do and just can't be bothered. Saint-Just recognised during the ur-Revolution that the greatest enemy of the radical was the indifferent. The nazis' approach to this problem was simple: make them secure. It does not give us the why of nazism, but it helps towards explaining the how.

Savages

Michael Yon meeting death in Bali and in his memories of Iraq at the same time that proud Freedom Fighters were sending four bombs among the Yezidis.

More than 200 people [perhaps 500] were murdered by suicide bombers. Like they had done in New York. Like they had done in London. Like they had done in Bali. Mass murder. I had visited a couple of Yezidi villages in Iraq in 2005, and written about them, and now was their turn to suffer again. Today while Komang’s parents suffer in Bali, there are probably Yezidi children with no parents. Children who are injured and afraid and suddenly alone. All for nothing. All because of savages.

Yon had been to a Yezdinar village in 2005.

Why this new variation on the al-Queda CNN Moment?

The bombings were a sign of al Qaeda's frustration, desperation and fear...The terrorist leaders realize now that the carnage they wrought on fellow Muslims backfired, turning once-sympathetic Sunni Arabs against them...But the second reason for those dramatic bombings was that al Qaeda needs to portray Iraq as a continuing failure of U.S. policy. Those dead and maimed Yazidis were just props: The intended audience was Congress.

Let's hope that Congress hears the right message.

Hamas: But they're not civilians anyway

I posted yesterday about Romano Prodi's call for dialogue with Hamas, and dismissed it as gesture politics to satisfy his left-wing coalition partners. I should have added, however, that the talk-with-everyone approach is not exclusive to the Left in Italy. The Catholic Right of the Christian Democrat days was also favourable to talking to Yasser Arafat, even before his 'legitimisation'.

But to stick with today's terrorists-we-should-be-talking-to, the Hamas representative in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, gave an interview on Lebanon's Al-Kawthar TV on August 6, 2007.

We are making the preparations for a confrontation. This is not because we need to be prepared for an Israeli act of aggression - after all, aggression is intrinsic to this entity - but because the final goal of the resistance is to wipe this entity off the face of the Earth. This goal necessitates the development of the capabilities of the resistance, until this entity is wiped out.

In addition, it is legitimate to target buses. Why?

Because they are the means of transport used by the soldiers as well. The Zionist soldiers, who go from their homes to their bases and back, use public transportation, because it is free or almost free. In my opinion, the occupation soldiers also have a security motive in using public transport: They shield themselves behind the so-called 'civilians' within the Zionist entity.

But the "so-called 'civilians'" are legitimate targets as well, because they are all from other countries, even if generations back.

[T]here were no Palestinian Jews. When the British Mandate began in 1917, there was only one settlement on Palestinian land, which included several dozen Jews, who were living there in violation of the law at the time ... Anyone who comes to live in a war zone is a combatant, regardless of whether he wears a uniform.

Note: A lower-end estimate of the Jewish population in 1912 put it at 40,000.

However, Hamdan's feelings are not by any means shared by all Muslims. These Indian visitors to Israel would be liable to execution if they lived in Bangladesh.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Helping Hamas to evolve

Italy, as so often before, is going soft. Romano Prodi, the Prime Minister, said last weekend that

"Hamas exists. It's a complex structure that we should help to evolve -- but this should be done with transparency," Prodi said at a conference in central Italy.

"One must push for dialogue so that it happens, and not shut anyone out of dialogue."

It should be said that Prodi heads a governing coalition whose life is on the knife edge and whose majority depends on some decidedly Leftist MPs. Every now and then he has to make noises to appease them. A favourite avenue of appeasement, because it consists mostly of gestures and does not affect Italians in the slightest, is the Middle East. He can strike the postures of the Moral High Ground and not have to do anything about it. He certainly doesn't have to suffer the consequences of his advice being followed.

An opposition Senator, Enrico Pianetta, reacted.

Helping Hamas to evolve is like helping the Red Brigades to evolve.

Exactly. We know how well that one went.

And speaking of the Red Brigades, newly active, if mostly arrested, there's a new book out in Italian about one of the founding mothers: Nom de guerre Mara - The life and death of Margherita Cagol, the first head of the Red Brigades. Here's a quote. The speaker the author, Stefania Podda, ex-Brigatista, now journaist for Liberazione.

Piú passano gli anni e piú ci rendiamo conto del caos che c'è in Italia, delle differenze di classe, delle ingiustizie infinite. Tutti i fanatismi sono terribili, ma arrivo a capire meglio quegli anni lontani, ormai dimenticati. Almeno allora c'era un ideale. Il resto è mafia, cocaina, potere assoluto.
[The more years pass, the more we realise what chaos there is in Italy, the class divisions, the infinite injustices. All fanaticism is terrible, but I'm getting to understand those distant years better. At least then there was an ideal. The rest is mafia, cocaine, absolute power.]

There you have it. That's the choice. One one side, mafia, cocaine and absolute power (what does that mean?); on the other, "idealism" [Killing one to educate a hundred, as the 'idealists' used to say]. It's the sort of choice kidnappers and terrorists give you. Injustices are infinite, power is absolute, and we must help Hamas (who want to kill rather more than one) to evolve.

(Article in Italian)

Hurled in anger

In Iraq, those desperate Americans are now throwing bullets at elderly ladies. I fear there is worse to come.

(via Instapundit)

Update

Confederate Yankee looks into the portfolio of the photographer, and tries to ID the bullet.

Money makes the ...

Instapundit points to a survey that shows that contributions to election funds by academics go overwhelmingly to the Democrats. That's a shocker. And look at the group that occupies even more of our head space: TV/Movies/Music. The top three beneficiaries are all Democrats and they whistle up $3,229,093 between them. Numbers 4 and 5 are Republicans, who manage to scrape together $625,115. The next two in the rankings are Democrats.

I can see no entry for the media. Is that in the interests of transparency?

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Liberators, occupiers, protectors

A very long, detailed and fair article about Iraq by Ullrich Fichtner in Der Speigel. It moves from achievement in Ramadi, to virtual despair in Baghdad and then north to hope in Mosul. It is rich in characters, American and Iraqi, and including Petraeus. How I admire the restraint of the man. His assessment has developed from [in January] "The situation is not satisfactory." to [in July] "it gives rise to hope".

Just a couple of theme quotes, but there's a lot else.

Ramadi is an irritating contradiction of almost everything the world thinks it knows about Iraq -- it is proof that the US military is more successful than the world wants to believe. Ramadi demonstrates that large parts of Iraq -- not just Anbar Province, but also many other rural areas along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers -- are essentially pacified today. This is news the world doesn't hear: Ramadi, long a hotbed of unrest, a city that once formed the southwestern tip of the notorious "Sunni Triangle," is now telling a different story, a story of Americans who came here as liberators, became hated occupiers and are now the protectors of Iraqi reconstruction.

The world has become deaf to the word "peace" -- at least when conversations turn to Iraq. It is as if the world were blind to the possibility that the situation in this country straddling the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers could be anything different from the constant stream of increasingly devastating films of the latest car bombings. For most people, Iraq has become nothing but a series of attacks, a collection of images of bombings and victims, a tale of failure, a book about historical guilt and a symbol of the moral decline of the United States of America.
The final words are
That's the situation in Iraq. A race is underway. Now every day on the calendar is historic. The future can be won or it can be gambled away.